We Did it: Don’t expect results in Kentucky, New York on Tuesday — Trump: Expansion of mail voting 'my biggest risk'

Jun 19, 2020

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Quick Fix

— Some of the most closely-watched primaries on Tuesday are in Kentucky and New York, but here's why we likely won't know the winners for days, if not at least a week.

— In an interview with POLITICO, President Donald Trump called the expansion of mail voting a major threat to his reelection.

— Sen. Amy Klobuchar removed herself from contention to be Joe Biden's running mate, saying he should choose a woman of color.

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Days until the Kentucky, New York and Virginia primaries and Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina primary runoffs: 4

Days until the Democratic convention: 59

Days until the Republican convention: 67

Days until the 2020 election: 137

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TopLine

DON'T WAIT UP — There's a whole bunch of closely watched primaries on Tuesday, from the Kentucky Democratic Senate primary and a slew of New York City-area Democratic House primaries. But we likely won't know the winners on Tuesday night.

In both the Bluegrass and Empire states, days-long delays are expected until final results are released, I reported with POLITICO New York's Bill Mahoney. And, setting aside the potential for in-person voting disasters that we've seen in recent primaries, the delay here will be due to the high number of expected mail-in ballots.

In New York, absentee ballots aren't even counted until a week after Election Day, once all ballots are returned, as a security measure to make sure voters don't cast more than one ballot. In a state that usually sees fewer than one-in-20 votes cast by mail, it typically isn't a big hold-up. But on Tuesday, a significant portion of ballots are expected to be mailed in.

"People need to change their expectations and adjust to the realities of our current elections," Common Cause New York executive director Susan Lerner said. "If that means taking a little extra time, better to be efficient and accurate than to be fast and raise questions."

And, in Kentucky, the state's two largest counties — Jefferson and Fayette — are not releasing results until June 30, after all absentee ballots have been counted. "I just feel like it is misleading to the public to do partial results to the public every day," said Don Blevins Jr., the county clerk in Fayette County, which includes Lexington.

If the Senate primary is close between Amy McGrath and Charles Booker, don't expect a call on Tuesday night. Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams, who is handling his first statewide election since winning office, said his office will still post results from what they have on Tuesday, but he also noted that some smaller counties made the same decision to hold results until absentee ballots are counted, citing technical hurdles.

— Some more action out of the Kentucky primary: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) endorsed Booker, Campaign Pro's James Arkin wrote, the latest high-profile Democrat to weigh in.

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Presidential Big Board

THE REELECT — The headline out of POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt's Oval Office sit-down with Trump on Thursday: He sees the expansion of mail voting, a result of the coronavirus pandemic, as an existential threat. Talking about the Republican National Committee's legal efforts to limit mail voting, which they say invites fraud, Trump told Alex, "We have many lawsuits going all over. And if we don't win those lawsuits, I think — I think it puts the election at risk."

On the battle for the Senate, Trump fired a shot across the bow of any vulnerable Republicans who might think of distancing themselves from the White House. "If they don't embrace, they're going to lose, because, you know, I have a very hard base," Trump said. "I have the strongest base people have ever seen."

VEEPSTAKES — Klobuchar bowed out of the vice presidential search on Thursday night. In an interview with MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell , she said she called Biden and said that he should pick a woman of color as his running mate. "After what I've seen in my state, what I've seen across the country, this is a historic moment, and America must seize on this moment," she said. "I think this is a moment to put a woman of color on that ticket."

CONVENTION SPOTTING — The Jacksonville 2020 Host Committee rolled out the names of 32 political, civic and business leaders who are leading the efforts to host the Republican National Convention in late August, POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout writes in to Score. Many of the names on the committee are familiar in Florida GOP circles. The co-chairs are Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry and Brian Ballard, the well-known lobbyist/GOP fundraiser who once worked as President Donald Trump's lobbyist in Tallahassee.

Other committee members include Reps. John Rutherford and Michael Waltz, as well as state Senate President Bill Galvano and state House Speaker Jose Oliva. The list also includes Trump ally and former state Attorney General Pam Bondi, former U.S. Ambassador John Rood and a handful of top GOP state legislators. They have a tall task ahead of them, having to raise cash and figure out how to stage a massive event in about two months.

ON THE AIRWAVES — Biden's campaign is launching its first general election advertising flight. The campaign said it is a $15 million, five-week advertising effort that includes TV, digital, radio and print in six states that Trump carried in 2016: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona. The campaign said the ad flight will center around three ads (ad one, ad two and ad three), two of which are contrast ads with Trump, and one that's focused on essential workers.

— Facebook removed ads from Trump's campaign "that featured a symbol that the Nazis used in the World War II era to identify certain prisoners in concentration camps," POLITICO's Alexandra Levine reported. "The red inverted triangle included in the material by 'Team Trump' once marked political dissidents like Communists and Social Democrats, and a variation was used to label Jewish political prisoners. … The Trump campaigne maintains that the inverted triangle is a symbol of antifa, the left-wing anti-fascist movement that the president has frequently attacked during the racial justice protests spreading across the country in recent weeks." (The Washington Post's Isaac Stanley-Becker first reported the ads.) Twitter also slapped a "manipulated media" warning on one of the president's tweets.

THE PROCESS — California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a law that bolsters the state's plans to mail voters a ballot in November. POLITICO California's Jeremy B. White : "Newsom has already ordered county elections officials to send all eligible Californians ballots in an effort to prevent the general election from becoming a coronavirus health hazard. But that directive has drawn multiple legal challenges — including from the California Republican Party — so enshrining the all-mail mandate in statute puts it on stronger legal footing."

— A nonprofit arm of the liberal donor network Way to Win is launching a $59 million effort to push voters of colors to vote by mail, the AP's Brian Slodysko reported.

THE DEBATE STAGE — Trump's campaign is pressing for more than the three scheduled debates with Biden in the fall and has deputized Rudy Giuliani to make the case. "The changes sought by the Trump campaign amount to a major reversal. Trump last year threatened to boycott the debates; now he wants more one-on-one encounters," POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt reported. "Giuliani held a Thursday afternoon conference call with Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale and Frank Fahrenkopf, co-chairman of the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates. During the call, Giuliani and Parscale pushed for the debates to begin before early voting starts. They also requested a fourth debate."

Down the Ballot

THE CASH DASH — We have pre-primary reports for the June 30 primaries, giving us a peek into spending in the Colorado Senate race. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper outraised both GOP Sen. Cory Gardner , whom he hopes to face in November, and his primary opponent Andrew Romanoff. Gardner still maintains a cash on hand advantage. Reports cover from April 1-June 10.

CO-Sen: Gardner raised $2.1 million, spent $2.4 million and has $9.3 million in cash on hand (filing). Hickenlooper raised $3.7 million, spent $2.6 million and has $5.9 million on hand (filing ). Andrew Romanoff raised $710,000, spent $723,000 and has $792,000 in the bank (filing).

CO-03: GOP Rep. Scott Tipton raised $136,000, spent $132,000 and has $630,000 in cash reserves (filing).

Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush $182,000, spent $308,000 and has $351,000 in cash on hand (filing). James Iacino raised $187,000 (including a $50,000 loan), spent $414,000 and has $134,000 in the bank (filing).

CO-06: Freshman Democratic Rep. Jason Crow raised $304,000, spent $116,000 and has $1.9 million in cash reserves (filing). Republican Steve House raised $137,000, spent $190,000 (including $45,000 in loan repayment) and has $356,000 on hand (filing).

OK-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn raised $412,000, spent $230,000 and has $2.4 million in the bank (filing).

Republican Stephanie Bice raised $210,000, spent $387,000 and has $229,000 in cash on hand (filing). David Hill raised $170,000, spent $228,000 and has $122,000 on hand ( filing ) Terry Neese raised $87,000, spent $385,000 and has $353,000 on hand (filing). Janet Barresi raised $61,000, spent $216,000 and has $212,000 in the bank (filing).

UT-04: Republican Kim Coleman raised $178,000, spent $209,000 and had $84,000 in cash on hand (filing ). Jay McFarland raised $30,000, spent $57,000 and has $5,000 on hand (filing) Burgess Owens raised $295,000, spent $276,000 and has $111,000 on hand (filing). Trent Christensen raised $10,000, spent $13,000 and has $2,000 in cash on hand (filing).

ON THE AIRWAVES — The NRCC laid down $23.5 million in initial fall TV ad reservations, POLITICO Playbook's Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer reported . The buys: $3.6 million in Philadelphia; $2.7 million in Minneapolis; $1.8 million in Fresno, Calif., and $1.2 million in Bakersfield, Calif., where ex-Rep. David Valadao is making a comeback bid; $2.6 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, $1.4 million in Des Moines and $685,000 in Davenport, Iowa; $1.5 million in Atlanta; $1.6 million in Binghamton, N.Y., $825,000 in Utica, N.Y., and $900,000 in Syracuse, N.Y., which overlap with NY-22; $2.1 million in Houston; $725,000 in Oklahoma City; $630,000 in Charleston, S.C.; $600,000 in Richmond, Va.; and $540,000 in Albuquerque, N.M., and $350,000 El Paso, Texas, against Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-N.M.).

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— FIRST IN SCORE — Democrat Candace Valenzuela, who is facing off against Kim Olson in the primary runoff in the battleground TX-24, is up with an ad that contrasts her and Olson. "Teachers make all the difference. Mine helped me overcome childhood homelessness," Valenzuela said in the ad. The ad then features a retired teacher criticizing Olson, saying she "fired hundreds of teachers, after she mismanaged the budget." The campaign said the ad will start airing today as part of a six-figure buy.

— Women Vote!, the independent expenditure arm of EMILY's List, released a new ad attacking Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) for the Senate's response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

— The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a new independent expenditure ad in Michigan attacking Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, claiming his tenure created "winners and losers."

AFSCME, the municipal employees union, released a new ad in Michigan attacking Republican John James over pre-existing conditions. They are spending at least $1 million, according to Advertising Analytics.

— Majority Forward, the Democratic dark-money group focused on the Senate, released a new ad criticizing Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) over pre-existing conditions.

— Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) released a new ad blaming China for the coronavirus outbreak and calling for accountability.

— Democrat Cal Cunningham, who is running against Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), is out with his first general election TV ad. The ad highlights his military service and says he'll "take on the corporate corruption" in Washington.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is up with a new ad backing Tillis, saying he is fighting for veterans and military families.

— Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) released two new ads, one featuring voter testimony for her, and a second ad on her efforts in response to Covid-19.

— Hickenlooper released a new ad ahead of the June 30 Democratic primary touting his accomplishments as governor, with a narrator saying it's a "moment for big change" and he'd be a "senator who delivers."

FIRST IN SCORE — POLL POSITION — An internal poll from Democrat Dan Feehan shows a close race in MN-01. In the poll conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, Feehan is at 43 percent to freshman GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn's 42 percent (601 likely voters, June 9-13; +/- 4.1 percentage point MOE). Hagedorn defeated Feehan by less than a point in the open-seat race in the midterms.

— An internal poll from the open, red FL-03 has a wide-open GOP primary to replace the retiring Rep. Ted Yoho. The WPA Intelligence poll from Kat Cammack only shows two candidates breaking double digits in the primary: Judson Sapp at 12 percent and Cammack at 10 percent (405 GOP primary voters; June 16-17; +/- 4.9 percentage point MOE).

THE HOUSE MAP — Freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman, who lost the nomination at a convention last week to Bob Good, isn't planning on going quietly. "Everything's on the table," Riggleman said in an interview with Gray TV's Alana Austin, in which he didn't rule out a legal challenge or running as a third-party candidate.

— The DCCC added Carolyn Bourdeaux, who recently won the Democratic nomination outright in GA-07, to its Red to Blue program. Bourdeaux lost in GA-07 by about 400 votes to GOP Rep. Rob Woodall in 2018. Woodall announced he would not seek reelection and Rich McCormick won the Republican primary.

— Republican Ted Howze, who is running in CA-10, "had posts on his personal Facebook page [until Wednesday] that likened welfare recipients to animals and insulted supporters of former President Barack Obama three weeks after he lost endorsements of key GOP leaders because of other problematic social media messages" that were reported by POLITICO, The Modesto Bee's Kate Irby reported.

— Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.) rescinded his endorsement of Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene in GA-14, following POLITICO's story about Greene's past racist videos.

THE ENFORCERS — For the first time in months, the FEC had a quorum. The nation's chief election watchdog had its first open meeting since August 2019. Trey Trainor, whose recent confirmation restored the agency's quorum, was unanimously elected as FEC chair by his colleagues, with Steven Walther as vice chair. The FEC also approved three advisory opinions on fairly non-controversial requests.

— Trainor also talked with POLITICO alum Dave Levinthal about what he hoped to accomplish as a commissioner. (Dave, who is soon starting a new gig at Business Insider, just couldn't stay away from campaign finance even when he should be taking time off!)

THE GOVERNATORS — Virginia state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, a Democrat, is the latest candidate to join the 2021 gubernatorial field. POLITICO's Maya King talked to McClellan about her campaign.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I feel confident about reelection, if only because I don't think anyone else will want the job." — Kentucky Secretary of State Michael Adams, who is conducting his first election under a pandemic.

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