We Did it: What we learned (and what we’re still waiting for) from Tuesday — Big moments for fundraising — Hickenlooper, Romanoff release dueling ads

Jun 24, 2020

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Quick Fix

— Most of the big primaries from Tuesday night are uncalled (and will likely remain that way for at least a week), but a candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump went down in a GOP primary in a safe North Carolina seat.

— Both Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden touted big fundraising hauls: Trump for his weekend rally in Tulsa, and Biden for his fundraiser with former President Barack Obama.

— Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Andrew Romanoff, his opponent in the Democratic Senate primary in Colorado, traded ads in the runup to the June 30 election.

Good Wednesday. morning. We will have baseball! Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com, or follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah primaries: 6

Days until the Democratic convention: 54

Days until the Republican convention: 62

Days until the 2020 election: 132

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TopLine

ABOUT LAST NIGHT — Most of the hotly-contested Democratic primaries — like the Kentucky Senate primary between Amy McGrath and Charles Booker, and a slew of New York City-area primaries — aren't called, and we aren't really expecting any resolution for at least a week. Campaign Pro chief Steve Shepard has some takeaways from the night, but here's what we know (and don't know) so far.

In Kentucky, early returns have McGrath less than 10 points in front of Booker. But this is with the state's largest two counties — Jefferson and Fayette — with no results in, something that won't happen until they count all their absentee ballots, so there's plenty of room for this to shift. (Other counties are outstanding as well.) A similar caveat applies for these New York House primaries: Absentee ballots won't be counted for a week, so these numbers could very well shift.

First, the Democratic primaries in-and-around New York City. NY-16, Rep. Eliot Engel is trailing Jamaal Bowman by a pretty decent margin, though the AP said this morning the race is "too early to call." In the open-seat NY-15, city Council Member Ritchie Torres tops a split field, and the open NY-17 has Mondaire Jones ahead of the pack. Rep. Yvette Clarke in NY-09 and Jerry Nadler in NY-10 have sizable leads over their primary challengers, while Rep. Carolyn Maloney and Suraj Patel are neck-and-neck in NY-12.

And in the special election in NY-27: Republican Chris Jacobs beat Nate McMurray to fill out the remainder of former GOP Rep. Chris Collins' term. McMurray almost beat the then-indicted Collins in the midterms — but once Collins gave up his seat, it became much stronger territory for Republicans. Jacobs and McMurray will face off again in November, after Jacobs held off challengers looking to win the nomination out from underneath him for the November election.

Lastly, the New York battleground races: The Democratic primary to challenge GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin in NY-01 is close between three candidates: Perry Gershon, Nancy Goroff and Bridget Fleming. Democrat Jackie Gordon and Republican Andrew Garbarino lead their primaries in the open NY-02. In NY-11, Nicole Malliotakis leads the GOP primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose. The GOP primary to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado in NY-19 is close between Ola Hawatmeh and Kyle Van De Water. Former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney leads her primary, as she seeks a rematch against freshman Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi in NY-22. And in NY-24, Democrat Dana Balter leads Francis Conole in the race to face GOP Rep. John Katko.

Heading down the coast, the GOP primary runoff in NC-11 saw 24-year-old Madison Cawthorn defeat Lynda Bennett, who was endorsed by both Trump and now-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, who previously held the seat. Cawthorn's win pierces the president's perfect record of picking winners in Republican primaries this cycle. (The president also backed Virginia GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman, but he lost at a convention.)

"I don't think this was a referendum on how much influence the president has. I think the people of Western North Carolina are very discerning, and they just wanted to send someone who they thought would represent them best," Cawthorn said in an interview with POLITICO's Ally Mutnick and Alex Isenstadt, adding, "There will be no stronger supporter of the president than me."

In VA-05, Riggleman's seat, Democrats selected physician Cameron Webb as their nominee. He'll face off against Bob Good, who beat Riggleman at the convention, in November in a red-leaning seat.

A couple of incumbent Democrats were able to dispatch their primary challengers quite easily. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) beat back Melissa Caruso-Cabrera in NY-14. And Rep. Thomas Massie also cast aside his primary challenger Todd McMurtry in KY-04.

And how did these elections run? In what's becoming a pretty familiar problem for administrators who are grappling with a drastic expansion of mail-in balloting, voters in New York complained that they never actually received the ballot they requested. In some polling places in New York City, voters dealt with long lines and only getting part of the ballot to actually fill out. POLITICO New York's Erin Durkin, Joe Anuta, Michelle Bocanegra and Danielle Muoio have more from the city.

In Kentucky, the worst fears did not come to pass. An Atlanta-style meltdown was avoided at the singular polling places in Louisville and Lexington, although lines hovered in the one-to-two hour range at Kroger Field in Lexington (Here's more from the Lexington Herald-Leader's Daniel Desrochers and Jack Brammer ), and there was a bottleneck trying to find parking in Louisville. A last-minute injunction allowed some who just missed the window to vote in Lexington, with people literally running through the parking lot to get in line in time, per a video from NBC News' Shaquille Brewster.

Officials in the state touted what's expected to be record-smashing primary turnout, chalking it up to the bipartisan agreement in the state for no-excuse absentee voting and early voting (which aren't usually offered in Kentucky). High turnout isn't necessarily a sign of a well-run election (just ask Georgia), and a single polling place servicing an entire county or city can present problems for voters actually making it to the polls. But even election watchdogs in the state praised what happened yesterday — and urged the state to apply lessons going forward for November. "I'm sure there's some ballots that didn't get there in time, but I'm encouraged," Richard Beliles, the chairman of the board of Common Cause Kentucky, said. "I'm surprised. I was almost geared to complain, but I'm not." Here's more from Erin and me on how the elections in both states were run.

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Presidential Big Board

THE CASH DASH — Both Trump and Biden are touting recent fundraising hauls, showing that the money race is heating up. Obama marked a return to the campaign trail by hosting a pair of fundraisers —one for big donors, one for grassroots donors — for Biden. The events brought in a collective $11 million and are the biggest yet for Biden, per the Los Angeles Times' Melanie Mason.

— Meanwhile, the Trump campaign touted that the campaign and the RNC (along with the joint fundraising committees) raised more than $10 million over the weekend, tied to the president's rally in Tulsa.

THE DEBATE STAGE — The second general election debate between Trump and Biden is headed to Miami. It just may not have an audience. "Right now, we are not in Phase 3 so I can't see it today being hosted with people in the audience. Impossible to predict where we will be on October 15," Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said in a text message to POLITICO's Marc Caputo. "It's possible that we may already be in Phase 3 by then, and it's also possible that the debate can be held without people in the audience."

STAFFING UP — Hogan Gidley, who has been in the White House comms shop for the last three years, is jumping over to the Trump campaign as the campaign's national press secretary, per POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt.

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Down the Ballot

ON THE AIRWAVES — Hickenlooper has finally mentioned Romanoff, his primary opponent, in an ad. The former Colorado governor (and DSCC-backed candidate) took a shot at his opponent. Democratic Gov. "Jared Polis just slammed Andrew Romanoff for throwing mud at John Hickenlooper — just like the false Republican attack," the ad's narrator says in the spot. "But progressive leaders like Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker have endorsed John Hickenlooper."

Romanoff is also out with a new TV ad. The ad takes a vague swipe at both Hickenlooper and GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, saying, "My opponents are playing the same old insider politics that's way more about them than it is about you."

— Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) released the first two TV ads of his campaign. In one ad, Jones talks directly to the camera about George Floyd's death and the protests for racial justice following it. In the second ad, Jones talks about the economic recovery from coronavirus.

— LCV Victory Fund is going up with its first TV ad hitting Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.). The ad, which is part of a $1.5 million buy in the state, criticizes McSally for taking "campaign cash from oil and gas polluters."

— House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC focused on the House, made two additional TV bookings: $550,000 in Phoenix and $2.9 million in Houston.

FIRST IN SCORE — ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) is endorsing Democrat Candace Valenzuela in the heated primary runoff in the battleground TX-24. "Issues of racial and economic justice are front and center in America right now; Candace brings a unique perspective to these issues and will be integral in driving our national conversation forward," Lewis said. Valenzuela is facing off against Kim Olson on July 14.

— The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has backed GOP Rep. Roger Marshall in his bid for the open Kansas Senate seat, a big endorsement in the still crowded field. The Kansas City Star's Bryan Lowry has more.

— FIRST IN SCORE — The Chamber also endorsed former GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis' bid for the open Wyoming Senate seat. "As our country faces many challenges and is collectively working to not just reopen our economy, but return to growth and expanded opportunities for all Americans, we need leaders like" Lummis, Chamber CEO Tom Donohue said.

— The American Conservatives Union, the host of CPAC, backed Rep. Doug Collins' (R-Ga.) challenge to Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.). McClatchy's Francesca Chambers has more.

THE CASH DASH — GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte narrowly outraised Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney in the Montana gubernatorial race over the last month. From May 15 to June 15, Gianforte raised over $248,000, while Cooney brought in over $206,000, per the AP. The congressman retains a cash on hand advantage of $594,000 to $169,000.

POLL POSITION — An internal poll from Democrat Eugene DePasquale shows a competitive race in PA-10. The poll, conducted by GBAO, is a couple of weeks old, but has GOP Rep. Scott Perry at 50 percent, to 47 percent for DePasquale (600 likely general election voters; May 28-31; +/- 4.0 percentage point MOE).

CODA — 2020 HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Senate Intelligence Committee Confirms the US Navy Has a UFO Task Force" — from Vice News.