We Did it: The latest in polling research and innovation — Riggleman ousted at Va. GOP convention

Jun 15, 2020

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Quick Fix

— Pollsters' annual meeting was moved online as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, but there was no shortage of illuminating research on election surveys presented virtually.

— Freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman lost his party's nomination at a drive-thru convention in Virginia on Saturday, roughly a year after he officiated a same-sex wedding.

— A new poll shows Democrat Theresa Greenfield leading GOP Sen. Joni Ernst in Iowa, the latest piece of foreboding survey data for Republicans.

Good Monday morning. Zach Montellaro is off today, but he'll be back tomorrow. Email him at zmontellaro@politico.com, or follow him on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com, jarkin@politico.com and amutnick@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve, @JamesArkin and @allymutnick.

Days until the Kentucky, New York and Virginia primaries and Mississippi, North Carolina and South Carolina primary runoffs: 8

Days until the Democratic convention: 63

Days until the Republican convention: 71

Days until the 2020 election: 141

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TopLine

#STAY-POR — The annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research was scheduled for Atlanta in May. The coronavirus pandemic had other plans, but POLITICO attended the conference virtually last week. There were too many papers on election polling to mention comprehensively in this space, but here are some highlights.

Patrick Ruffini, of the GOP data and polling firm Echelon Insights, found gaps between the performance of phone and internet polls by gender. Polls conducted by telephone and on the web look similar for women. But results for male respondents are less consistent — particularly among white men without a college degree, which are less Republican in web-based polls than on the phone. Ruffini suggested that biases of internet polls toward women, more educated and less rural voters produced a coverage gap. "This might account for that slight skew to the left that we see in online surveys," he said.

The New York Times' Nate Cohn presented on what he called the "woefully underexplored" issues with state polls, which he said go beyond the well-documented problems with overestimating the share of better-educated voters. Studying fall 2019 swing-state surveys from five different pollsters, Cohn found that polls that included all registered voters were more Democratic than New York Times/Siena College polls that only surveyed voters designated on the rolls as "active."

Steve Koczela of the MassINC Polling Group took virtual attendees back in time to the 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial race (a real flashback for this correspondent, who traveled to the Bluegrass State twice for that campaign). MassINC conducted three waves of polling: one right after the May primary, one in mid-summer and one right before the election. Their polls followed the general trajectory of the race: Democrat Andy Beshear began with a lead, though then-GOP Gov. Matt Bevin nearly caught him in the end as some Republican holdouts came home. Bevin's approval ratings ticked up as the year went on, though — interestingly — his favorable numbers remained well underwater and didn't see improvement. Also, MassINC found limited benefits for Bevin in his strategy to yoke himself to Trump: Few voters said it made them more likely to vote to reelect the incumbent.

More 2019 research: Democratic pollster Joey Teitelbaum of Global Strategy Group outlined the research her firm did for Gumbo PAC, the aptly named, pro-Democratic outside group that boosted Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards. GSG conducted "multi-channel" surveys — combining interviews conducted via phone calls, online panels and text-to-web solicitations — all matched to the voter file. Teitelbaum found that the combination of methodologies produced superior results and required less weighting — at least in the runoff that pitted Edwards against Republican Eddie Rispone last November — than the two more experimental methods (online and text-to-web). "With rising phone costs, 'multi-channel' does appear to be a more cost-efficient way of reaching voters and a more accurate way of reaching voters than using either text-to-web or online-panel on their own," Teitelbaum said.

Election polling represents only a tiny percentage of the research presented at the annual AAPOR conference (which I've also covered in past years ). But make no mistake: After the surprise of the 2016 election, the polling industry is taking 2020 seriously. Already, AAPOR has established a task force to study the performance of the election polls this year: a 19-person group chaired by Josh Clinton of Vanderbilt University.

THE CRITICAL COVID-19 FACTS AND PERSPECTIVE YOU NEED, NIGHTLY : As states continue to take steps toward reopening, coronavirus cases have spiked, and nationwide unrest over racial injustice persists. America's economic recovery remains uncertain, and voters are struggling to make their voices heard at the polls. For critical Covid-19 insight, context and analysis from experts across our global newsroom during these uncertain times, choose POLITICO Nightly. Subscribe today.

Presidential Big Board

THE REELECT — Despite Trump's floundering poll numbers, a survey of local GOP officials by POLITICO's David Siders finds widespread optimism about the party's prospects in November: "Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn't get it."

THE VEEPSTAKES — Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign has "conducted several rounds of interviews with a select group of vice-presidential candidates and are beginning to gather private documents from some of them," The New York Times' Alex Burns and Jonanthan Martin wrote. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) "have been interviewed at length," while Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and former national security adviser Susan Rice "have also been interviewed and asked for documents."

— Also on the list of top contenders, per The Washington Post's Sean Sullivan: Rep. Val Demings (D-Fla.), New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

MADE BY HISTORY — Biden's campaign told POLITICO's Alex Thompson on Friday that Biden "supports scrubbing Confederate leaders' names from all military assets, putting him at odds with President Donald Trump," who last week said he opposed renaming the 10 military bases named after Confederate soldiers.

BACK ON THE TRAIL — The Trump campaign has rescheduled this week's reelection rally in Tulsa, Okla., which was originally set for Friday. Trump tweeted that the rally would instead be Saturday, moving it back one day to avoid holding it on Juneteenth, the commemoration of the end of slavery after the Civil War.

CONVENTION SPOTTING — Democratic officials "have begun approaching state party chairs ... to gauge from their delegates the level of comfort and interest in attending the convention in person," The Daily Beast's Hanna Trudo and Sam Stein report. "One idea being floated is to have up to 20 percent of each state's delegation represented in person, or to try and cap the total number of people who come to the Aug. 17 event, according to two sources familiar with the internal discussions."

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Down the Ballot

DRIVE-THRU DRUBBING — GOP activists in Virginia's 5th District picked Bob Good, a former Liberty University athletic department official, to replace Riggleman. Good, as Campaign Pro's Ally Mutnick reported, ran to Riggleman's right, especially on social issues: "Good won the support of 58 percent of delegates who voted on Saturday, the district GOP chairman, Melvin Adams, said."

The event was unusual — delegates voted from their cars — and it wasn't without controversy. Riggleman lobbed unspecified allegations of "ballot stuffing," and results weren't announced until after 1 a.m. early Sunday morning. Good's response to Riggleman's suggestions that the vote wasn't on the up-and-up? "That's what losers say," he told The Roanoke Times' Amy Friedenberger.

Next up is the Democratic primary next Tuesday, with four candidates on the ballot.

MY OLD KENTUCKY HOME — Things are getting interesting in Kentucky. Despite more than $41 million raised for a showdown with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Amy McGrath is hearing footsteps in next week's Democratic primary, POLITICO's James Arkin and Burgess Everett report: "But McConnell isn't the opponent McGrath, a former fighter pilot, is sweating most right now. Instead, it's her rival in the June 23 Democratic primary: Charles Booker, a state lawmaker who was virtually ignored for months but now has all the momentum in the closing days of the election."

— Booker's campaign released an internal poll over the weekend showing him closing to within 10 points of McGrath, trailing 49 percent to 39 percent (YouGov/mvmt communications; June 8-12; 314 likely primary voters; +/- 7 percentage points).

THE SENATE MAP — A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll in Iowa, conducted by Selzer & Co., shows Greenfield leading Ernst, 46 percent to 43 percent (June 7-10; 674 likely voters; +/- 3.8 percentage points).

— As Republicans' Senate majority becomes more tenuous (see the Iowa poll above), the GOP is running an anti-China playbook, The New York Times' Catie Edmondson writes. The lead adopters of the strategy appear to be Sens. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and Ernst. "It becomes an easy punching bag for politicians, both Republicans and Democrats," GOP pollster Neil Newhouse told Edmondson.

— Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, the Democratic nominee against Daines, launched his first TV ad on Sunday. In the ad, Bullock pledges to "keep working" for Montanans "every day until my term is done next January," and "work with both parties" if elected to the Senate. Advertising Analytics tracks about $198,000 in spending through next Monday.

— Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach reported that four weapons — two shotguns, a rifle and a handgun — were stolen from his car while it was parked in a hotel garage in downtown Wichita on Friday night. The Republican Senate candidate — whose successor recovered a missing firearm from a file cabinet on the day Kobach left office — told KSNW-TV's John Asebes that the theft of four guns from his car is a reminder of "how crucial the police are."

THE HOUSE MAP — The Associated Press acknowledged Saturday what had become obvious to many: The GA-07 Democratic primary isn't going to a runoff. As of late Sunday, 2018 nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux's vote share had inched over 52 percent, putting her on track for a majority win. The AP has retracted its call that Bourdeaux would face a runoff, but it stopped short of declaring her the winner. (It's the second retraction for the wire service from last week's Georgia primary: After initially projecting a runoff in GA-13, Democratic Rep. David Scott was called as the winner of his primary two days later.)

— A call out of Nevada: The AP said Friday that former pro wrestler Dan Rodimer had won the GOP primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in NV-03. Rodimer defeated former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz for the nomination.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — T-minus eight days until the New York primary, and embattled Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel is calling in all his chits as he faces his most difficult campaign since then-state Sen. Larry Seabrook primaried him two decades ago years ago. The latest, per POLITICO's Heather Caygle: endorsements Sunday night from Reps. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), two national figures within the Democratic caucus. Their endorsements came a day after an Engel colleague closer to home, House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries, also backed the incumbent.

— But New York Times' editorial board endorsed Engel's primary challenger in NY-16, educator Jamaal Bowman. They also backed one of Rep. Yvette Clarke's primary challengers, Adem Bunkeddeko, whom they also endorsed last cycle. Elsewhere in the metro area, the paper backed incumbent Democratic Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Jerry Nadler and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and made endorsements in two open-seat races: city Councilman Ritchie Torres in the Bronx-based NY-15, and former Department of Justice official Mondaire Jones in NY-17 in the Lower Hudson Valley.

— Sept. 1 is still more than two months away, but the Massachusetts Senate primary is heating up, POLITICO's Hub woman, Stephanie Murray, reports from Boston. Democratic Sen. Ed Markey "had no choice but to let it rip" at last week's confrontational debate with Rep. Joe Kennedy in Providence, R.I., Stephanie wrote: "He's trailed Kennedy in most public polls taken this year, has less money in the bank and the Covid-19 crisis has served to complicate his task of capturing attention against the scion of the state's most prominent political family."

RULES OF THE ROAD — The Iowa state legislature on Sunday advanced a budget that includes an expansion of the state's voter ID provisions. "Voters who go to their county courthouse or auditor's office to vote early in person would now have to provide ID before receiving their ballots," The Des Moines Register's Stephen Gruber-Miller and Ian Richardson wrote. "And if a voter provides incomplete or incorrect information when requesting a mailed absentee ballot, the county auditor's office would be required to contact the voter first by telephone and email, then by physical mail, rather than using an existing voter registration database to fill in the blanks."

— Alaska's state Supreme Court has rejected an attempt to block an election reform initiative from appearing on the November ballot, Alaska's Energy Desk's Nat Herz reports. The ruling, on Friday, means voters will decide whether to implement ranked-choice voting, a top-four primary system and tighter campaign finance rules.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Hey, Ron, somebody asked me about your investigations, and I wasn't that nice." — Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), running into Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) minutes after POLITICO's Andrew Desiderio interviewed him about the probes of prominent Democrats and former Obama administration officials Johnson is launching as chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.