We Did it: Republicans try to pick their candidate in top flip opportunity — Swing state polls bring good news for Biden

Jun 04, 2020

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Quick Fix

— Some national Republicans are boosting Nancy Mace ahead of next week's primary in SC-01, one of the GOP's top opportunities to flip a House seat.

— A wave of polls out of core battleground states showed Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump, along with a close race in several other states.

— A handful of the congressional primaries in Pennsylvania were called on Wednesday, clarifying some of the battleground races in the crucial and slow-counting swing state.

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Days until the Georgia, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and West Virginia primaries: 5

Days until the Democratic convention: 74

Days until the Republican convention: 82

Days until the 2020 election: 152

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TopLine

THE PALMETTO STATE — The race to take on freshman Rep. Joe Cunningham in South Carolina's lowcountry is one of the most interesting contests on Tuesday. National Republicans are boosting Mace, whose main main opponent is Kathy Manning, a partially self-funding businesswoman and a local town councilmember. Bikers for Trump founder Chris Cox is also running.

Mace is the kind of candidate that Republicans say they want more of, in a House conference that is still overwhelmingly white, older men. Mace, a state lawmaker, was the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, something that features prominently in a lot of her campaign messaging. She's been elevated over Landing in the NRCC's Young Guns program, and has the endorsement of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. The White House has not formally backed Mace, but she got a shoutout from Vice President Mike Pence when he visited The Citadel in February (which has also been featured in an ad from Mace).

And — stop me if you've heard this one before — the Club for Growth has also gone in big for Mace in the primary. (Has any outside group spent more in GOP primaries this cycle than the Club?) Club for Growth Action has spent nearly $600,000 on the race. A spot that landed on Wednesday from the Club said Landing would be "an expensive mistake in Congress." Polling released by the Club in late April had Mace with a big lead (but still a little shy of avoiding a runoff), but we haven't seen much in the way of reliable polling since then. Landing has the backing of the political arm of the House Freedom Caucus, but they have come nowhere close to matching the Club's spending. Another big Landing endorsement: former Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.).

Whoever emerges from the primary will go up against Cunningham in a district Trump carried by 13 points in 2016. Cunningham eked out an incredibly narrow victory in 2018 in an open-seat race, and if Republicans are to have any hopes of flipping the lower chamber — as NRCC Chair Tom Emmer insists they have — districts like SC-01 are must-wins.

But Cunningham won't be a pushover in the district. He is one of the better fundraisers out of all the freshmen Democrats in a wave year, in a class that's just absolutely loaded with money-printing machines. He's raised a whopping $3.7 million since the beginning of the cycle and was sitting on over $2.6 million in the bank, as of late May. Mace has been a solid fundraiser herself: She's raised a bit under $1.4 million and had $560,000 squirreled away for the stretch run of the primary.

Nancy Mace | AP Photo

Republican Nancy Mace is trying to win her primary on Tuesday in one of the country's most competitive House races. | AP Photo

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Presidential Big Board

POLLS POLLS POLLS — A trio of Fox News polls in battleground states are all good for Biden. In Wisconsin, Biden leads Trump, 49 percent to 40 percent (801 registered voters; May 30-June 2; +/- 3.5 percentage point MOE). There's a tight race in Ohio , where Biden is at 45 percent to 43 percent for the president (803 registered voters; May 30-June 2; +/- 3.5 percentage point MOE). And across the country in Arizona, the former vice president is at 46 percent to 42 percent for Trump (1,002 registered voters; May 30-June 2; +/- 3 percentage point MoE).

And a new poll out of Texas — yes, Texas — has the presidential race within the margin of error. In the Quinnipiac University poll, Trump is at 44 percent, to 43 percent for Biden (1,166 self-identified registered voters; May 28-June 1; +/- 2.9 percentage point MOE). Alas, no Senate ballot-test here.

— And a Monmouth University national poll has a wide lead for Biden. In the poll of registered voters , Biden is at 52 percent to 41 percent for Trump (742 registered voters; May 28-June 1; +/- 3.6 percentage point MOE).

NOT HOW IT WORKS — Trump tried to register to vote in Florida in Sept. 2019 listing the White House as his "legal residence" — which "created a potential problem for Trump: Florida law requires voters to be legal residents of the state," The Washington Post's Manuel Roig-Franzia reported. Trump later resubmitted an application with a Florida address a month later.

Down the Ballot

MORE CALLS — Some more calls trickled in from Pennsylvania on Wednesday. In PA-01, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) fended off a surprisingly-lively primary challenge and will face Democrat Christina Finello. Fitzpatrick represents a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, but to call Finello an … underfunded primary challenger at this point would be generous. She had $82,000 in the bank as of mid-May, compared to $1.7 million for Fitzpatrick.

In PA-07, Republican Lisa Scheller narrowly edged out Dean Browning for the nomination to face Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. Scheller picked up a last-minute Trump endorsement that may have helped push her across the finish line.

And in PA-08, Republican Jim Bognet emerged from a crowded primary to face Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. The Democratic race in PA-10 to face GOP Rep. Scott Perry remains uncalled. National Democrats recruited state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, who currently leads his primary opponent.

PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Wednesday was a real banner day for Jamaal Bowman, who is primarying Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel in NY-16. Bowman picked up the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who for the first time this cycle endorsed against a fellow member of the New York delegation. (She promised a slate of New York endorsements later today.)

Earlier in the day, the Working Families Party and Justice Democrats said they'll collectively spend $500,000 to back Bowman, HuffPost's Daniel Marans reported. Following Engel's hot mic moment on Tuesday, Bowman said he raised over $107,000 as well.

THE PROCESS — California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order requiring that in-person voting still be an option for the November election, even with the state mailing every registered voter a ballot. "The order requires counties to allow voters to cast ballots starting three days before the election and to maintain at least one polling place per 10,000 voters," POLITICO California's Jeremy B. White reported.

— Baltimore's election saw a significant amount of problems, with mail delays and some ballots never showing up at all, with election results being delayed, The Baltimore Sun's Jean Marbella reported, with results vanishing off the state's election results page. Some Baltimore voters received mail-in ballots with errors on them as well, per CBS Baltimore.

ON THE AIRWAVES — The NRSC launched its first ad in Maine Wednesday, attacking Democrat Sara Gideon over a campaign finance violation that resulted in a fine last year. "Don't gamble on Gideon," a narrator says before promoting GOP Sen. Susan Collins.

— Democrat Andrew Romanoff released his first TV ad ahead of Colorado's June 30 Senate primary. The ad features Romanoff speaking straight to camera talking about mental health care. "I know what it's like to lose someone you love," Romanoff says in the ad. "That's why I led the fight for mental health care. But it shouldn't take a crisis to teach us our healthcare system is broken." His campaign said the ad will run statewide backed by a six figure buy.

— FIRST IN SCORE — Democrat Francis Conole, one of the Democrats running in NY-24, is up with a new television ad . "Now we're facing a crisis unlike we've ever seen before. So when I see Washington politicians failing to lead, feeding us misinformation, costing us lives. I say, enough is enough," he says in the ad. The ad is part of a pre-existing buy running in Syracuse and Rochester markets.

— Republican Andrew Garbarino, who is running in the open seat race in NY-02, released his first television ad of the cycle. The ad notes that he's backed by the retiring GOP Rep. Pete King, and goes after his primary opponent.

— Republican Stephanie Bice, who is running in OK-05, is asking supporters to pick her next TV ad. Her campaign released a pair of ads and are asking supporters to vote for which should run. (As best I can tell, the only difference is the background music.)

POLL POSITION — A poll from the Republican pollster Cygnal ahead of Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary in Georgia has Jon Ossoff in a strong position. In the poll , Ossoff is at 49 percent, to 16 percent for Teresa Tomlinson and 8 percent for Sarah Riggs Amico (510 likely Democratic primary voters; May 28-30; +/- 3.34 percentage point MOE). Cygnal doesn't have any Georgia Senate campaigns or IE groups as clients.

— The aforementioned Fox News poll in Arizona also has a ballot test for the Senate. (Thank you!). Democrat Mark Kelly has a wide lead over GOP Sen. Martha McSally , 50 percent to 37 percent.

— And we have some North Carolina numbers, courtesy a poll from the conservative Civitas Institute conducted by Harper Polling. In the Senate rate, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis is at 38 percent to 36 percent for Democrat Cal Cunningham. For the gubernatorial race, Democratic Gov. Dan Cooper is at 49 percent and Republican Gov. Dan Forest is at 37 percent. The presidential race is also close: Trump is at 47 percent to Biden's 44 percent (500 likely voters; May 26-28; +/- 4.38 percentage point MOE).

THE MOVEMENT? — Long-simmering tensions among aides of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are now in full public view. "As election results across the country rolled in on Tuesday evening, current and former aides to Bernie Sanders abruptly laced into each other on social media, trading accusations of being 'tone-deaf,' not giving 'a shit about the base,' and even stealing infrastructure from the 2020 campaign," POLITICO's Holly Otterbein wrote. "For progressives and ex-Sanders staffers worried about how to keep the movement alive after the Vermont senator dropped out of the primary, the feud set off a round of soul-searching since it came against the backdrop of nationwide civil unrest and protests against police brutality."

STAFFING UP — Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is announcing his campaign staff for his Senate bid: Megan Simpson is is his campaign manager, Brandon DeMars is political director, Becky Kuntz is research director, Olivia Bercow is comms director, Bailey Mohr is digital director, Lily Ross is finance director and and Ella Wodin is operations director.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I was just informed, too, that we've had a large earthquake. As if things couldn't get worse." — Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti during a press conference.

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