We Did it: Madison Cawthorn’s advice for the GOP — Democratic convention goes largely virtual

Jun 25, 2020

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Quick Fix

— Madison Cawthorn will likely be the youngest congressman in modern history come January. He thinks Republicans need to talk differently to attract younger voters.

— Democrats' national convention is moving to a largely virtual affair, as delegates are being discouraged from heading to Milwaukee for Joe Biden's coronation.

— New polls show Biden opening up leads over President Donald Trump in the battleground states, including New York Times/Siena College surveys that stake the Democrat to double-digit leads among registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Good Thursday morning. Thanks to Ally (amutnick@politico.com; @allymutnick) for writing today's Topline. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com , or follow me on Twitter at @ZachMontellaro.

Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow them on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @JamesArkin.

Days until the Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah primaries: 5

Days until the Democratic convention: 53

Days until the Republican convention: 61

Days until the 2020 election: 131

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TopLine

FOREVER YOUNG — Twenty-four-year-old Madison Cawthorn wants to be the GOP's millennial and Gen Z whisperer. In an interview late Tuesday night, just hours after he beat a Trump-endorsed candidate in the NC-11 primary runoff, Cawthorn previewed his plans to sell conservative values to young voters who feel disillusioned with the political process. "I represent the very first year of Generation Z," he said. "I know that I'll be able to really reach out to the Millennial generation and my generation."

One big piece of advice: Rebrand the messaging behind major policy proposals on health care and national security. "When we say we wanted to secure the southern border, the way we message it it sounded like we were very xenophobic," Cawthorn said. "But at the end of the day, we were just caring about national security because of the cartels down there." On health care, he called the GOP "the party of no, with no real answers." Cawthorn still casts himself as a staunch Trump ally, but he pointed to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) as a real star in the party because he knows how to connect with average voters.

Cawthorn, who will turn 25 in August, stunned Republicans in D.C. and North Carolina with a massive 30-point victory Tuesday night over Lynda Bennett, a local real estate agent and family friend of ex-Rep. Mark Meadows, who resigned from the seat to serve as White House chief of staff. From the start, the race for the district was exceedingly controversial. Local Republicans accused Meadows of timing his retirement to benefit Bennett and suspected she was the only candidate with advance notice the seat would be open.

Throughout the runoff, Cawthorn hammered Bennett for dodging debates and leaned heavily into his personal story. In 2014, he was in a near-fatal car wreck that left him partially paralyzed and suffering from a traumatic brain injury. He has since become a real estate investor and motivational speaker — and said the experience gave him the ability to "move forward with a grit and a passion that I think would have taken decades to have built otherwise."

He also credits the accident with giving him a unique ability to connect with others who are suffering in a way he could not have done before and something he described as not common in his party. "It's taught me something that is pretty rare I think among conservatives. It taught me empathy," he said. "It's really taught me to see people who are disenfranchised, who feel like they've been left behind by the whole world."

The Western North Carolina district leans heavily Republican, so Cawthorn is favored in the general election against Democrat Moe Davis and will very likely be headed to Congress next year.

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Presidential Big Board

CONVENTION SPOTTING — Milwaukee will still host the Democratic convention, but delegates are being told to stay at home. POLITICO's Natasha Korecki and Holly Otterbein : "Democrats announced on Wednesday that the convention would move from the expansive Fiserv Forum — a state-of-the-art arena where the Milwaukee Bucks basketball team plays — to the much smaller Wisconsin Center, the city's convention center. Attendees will be capped at 1,000 people, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions. Biden is expected to speak from the Milwaukee location, and satellite sites are to be set up for broadcasting in other cities."

— Trump's rally last weekend in Tulsa, Okla., is leading to a re-thinking of the GOP convention. POLITICO's Gabby Orr: "Republican officials and Trump campaign aides, some of whom have been working since last year to plan the party's convention festivities, said the disappointing event last weekend imparted a critical lesson as they look ahead to Jacksonville, [Fla.] where Trump will deliver his acceptance speech as the GOP's presidential nominee in late August: Learn to manage expectations and plan for trouble."

POLLS POLLS POLLS — Biden leads Trump across the swing-state map, according to the Times/Siena polls out this morning. In Michigan, the Democrat is up, 47 percent to 36 percent (610 registered voters; June 8-17; +/- 4.3 percentage point MoE). In Wisconsin , Biden leads, 49 percent to 38 percent (655 registered voters; June 8-15; +/- 4.3 percentage point MoE). Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 50 percent to 40 percent (651 registered voters; June 8-16; +/- 4.1 percentage point MoE).

It's the same story in the Sun Belt, though those states are a little closer. Biden leads in Florida , 47 percent to 41 percent (651 registered voters; June 8-18; +/- 4.6 percentage point MoE). In Arizona, Biden leads, 48 percent to 41 percent (650 registered voters; June 8-16; +/- 4.3 percentage point MoE). And in North Carolina, Biden has a 9-point lead, 49 percent to 40 percent (653 registered voters; June 8-18; +/- 4.1 percentage point MoE).

The Times also wrote up an extensive explanation of the methodology behind their polls (before the results were published, mind you). Nate Cohn laid out the whole methodology here, but here's a quick topline. It is a telephone-based poll, with two-thirds of the calls overall being made to cellphones. Cohn wrote how the poll balances for partisanship and education and the effort they make it contact hard-to-reach groups.

But the NYT/Siena polls weren't the only polls. In a Quinnipiac University poll in Ohio, the race is neck-and-neck. Biden is at 46 percent, to 45 percent for Trump (1,139 self-IDed registered voters; June 18-22; +/- 2.9 percentage point MOE). Ohio is not a must-win for Biden, but probably is one for the president.

And in a new Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin, Biden is at 49 percent, to 41 percent for Trump (805 registered voters; June 14-18; +/- 4.3 percentage point MOE).

— A national poll from The New York Times/Siena College gives Biden a wide lead: 50 percent for the former vice president and 36 percent for Trump (1,337 registered voters; June 17-22; +/- 3 percentage point MOE).

SAFER AT HOME — Biden's campaign has, largely, operated out of a TV studio in his basement at home in Delaware, with no press conferences and only limited public appearances. (He's set to hold an event in Pennsylvania today to talk about health care.) And Democrats are just a-okay with that, as his lead in polling only grows. POLITICO's Marc Caputo and Chris Cadelago : "Biden's advisers, operating on the principle of not fixing things that aren't broken, say they have little intention of trying to match Trump in the volume of events he holds or news he produces. They contend that an exhausted electorate wants a return to normalcy and competent governance."

ON THE AIRWAVES — Unite the County, the pro-Biden super PAC, released three new ads, part of a $10 million previously-announced buy. The ads are focused on the economy post the 2008 financial crisis. "Then-Vice President Joe Biden oversaw the 2009 American Recovery Act — 14 million jobs created, the auto industry rescued, the longest sustained job growth in American history," the narrator says in a TV spot. A pair of digital ads focused on Biden's response to the coronavirus pandemic and the 2009 economic recovery.

— The Committee to Defend the President, one of the pro-Trump super PACs, is out with a new TV ad in Arizona that outright raises the idea of Biden having dementia. The group said it would spend $205,000 to air the ad on broadcast in Arizona, along with $100,000 for a CNN buy and $90,000 on social media.

STAFFING UP — Biden's campaign declined to make diversity numbers about its staff public when asked about it by BuzzFeed News' Ruby Cramer and Henry Gomez, six months after Biden said he had "the most diverse staff" in an NPR interview (which he didn't back up at the time , either). More from BuzzFeed News: "Campaign officials did not explain why they have yet to share diversity numbers publicly but indicated they expect to do so soon."

— Biden has announced a series of hires, per POLITICO's Chris Cadelago. In North Carolina, Biden has hired L.T McCrimmon as his state director, Maggie Thompson as a chief of staff and Scott Falmlen as an adviser. In Nevada, Alana Mounce will be state director, and state Sen. Yvanna Cancela will be a senior adviser. Shelby Wiltz will be the coordinated campaign director with the state party.

In Wisconsin, Biden announced his senior leadership: Danielle Melfi as state director, Scott Spector as senior adviser, Garren Randolph as deputy state director and Shirley Ellis as strategic adviser. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bill Glauber has more.

The former vice president also added to his digital team. Clarke Humphrey will be deputy digital director for grassroots fundraising, Jose Nunez will be digital organizing director, Christian Tom will be director of digital partnerships and Medha Raj will be digital chief of staff, per CNN's Sarah Mucha.

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Down the Ballot

THE PROCESS — A lot more Florida Democrats have signed up to vote-by-mail, in a state where any minor edge could be a big deal. POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout and Marc Caputo reported that more than 1.46 million Democrats have signed up to vote by mail, compared to 1.16 million Republicans. More from Gary and Marc: "By comparison, in 2016, Democrats held an advantage of about 8,800 in vote-by-mail enrollment. The reason for the success is twofold. Democrats have put heightened emphasis on getting more people to cast ballots from home, an effort that preceded the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. And Trump has demonized this type of voting so much that Republicans, who once dominated mail-in ballots, are souring on it."

— However, a federal judge in Florida issued Democrats a setback in a case to change the state's absentee voting laws. More from Gary (for Pros) : District Judge Robert "Hinkle did not render an opinion on the still-pending lawsuit, but said the groups 'are not likely to succeed on their claims that the defendants must provide postage for mailing in a ballot' in an order denying a request for preliminary injunction. … In his five-page order, Hinkle said the plaintiffs have not shown enough proof that they will win their bid to extend the state deadline to return mail-in ballots."

THE CASH DASH — WinRed, the Republican online fundraising platform, has reached its first birthday. The platform announced that it raised over $450 million in that timeframe. More than 850 campaigns currently use the platform, which includes 85 percent of Republican House and Senate members. (Who are the holdouts?)

— Democrat Kim Olson, who is running in the TX-24 primary runoff against Candace Valenzuela on July 14, raised $390,000 in her pre-primary reporting period. (She is not announcing a cash on hand total.) The period covers from April 1-June 24; reports are due on July 2.

MORE ON TUESDAY — Most of the races that were uncalled on Tuesday remain that way, but I neglected to mention on Wednesday that former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor won his primary in VA-02 and will face freshman Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in a rematch in November. Republican Daniel Gade won the GOP Senate primary to face Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). My apologies!

ON THE AIRWAVES — The NRSC is out with its latest ad in Iowa, attacking Democrat Theresa Greenfield. In the ad, a local businessman criticizes Greenfield's business record says she "does not share our values."

— The NRSC also released an ad in Maine, saying Democrat Sara Gideon did not take action fast enough with a now-former Democratic legislator in the state who was accused of "preying on teenage girls."

— Republican Bill Hagerty, who is running for the open Tennessee Senate seat, is out with a new ad. The ad highlights Trump's endorsement and says he wants to "hit China where it hurts" and rebuild the economy.

THE SENATE MAP — More help for former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper is on the way, as he tries to fend off Andrew Romanoff in next week's Democratic Senate primary. Senate Majority PAC reported dropping an additional $1.2 million in a buy backing him on Wednesday.

THE GOVERNATORS — A local chapter of Black Lives Matter in New Hampshire criticized Democratic Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky, who is running for governor, over his opposition to Eddie Edwards', a black conservative, nomination to a post in the state, WMUR's John DiStaso and Adam Sexton reported. (If Edwards' name sounds familiar, it is because he ran for NH-01 in the midterms.) Ronelle Tshiela, a leader of BLM Manchester, "said that it appears Volinsky and others who opposed Edwards and Republican former state Board of Education nominee Ryan Terrell 'only want to amplify black voices who agree with them and that is unacceptable.'"

In a statement, Volinsky apologized. "I acknowledge that I don't have the experience of a Black person. I apologize for calling Eddie Edwards and Ryan Terrell unqualified," he said. "There is a long history of Black people who have been unfairly dismissed as 'unqualified.' I failed to take that context into account when opposing these nominees."